Economic Performance of the Machine Tool Industry in the Third Quarter of 2021

2021 Since the beginning of this year, China has coordinated efforts to control the epidemic and promote economic and social development. The economy has maintained steady recovery, and the quality of development has further improved. In the first three quarters, the country’s GDP grew by a year-on-year rate of... 9.8% , two-year average growth 5.2% Goods imports and exports increased year-on-year. 22.7% The value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year. 11.8% , two-year average growth 6.4% ; Total profit increased year-on-year. 44.7% , two-year average growth 18.8% 。

Under favorable macroeconomic conditions, 2021 In the first three quarters of the year, the machine tool industry continued... 2020 Since the second half of the year, the industry has shown a recovery-driven growth trend, with continuously improving market demand and substantial increases in both imports and exports. The machine tool industry continues to maintain a positive operational trend.

I. Basic Situation of Industry Operations

Based on statistical data from key contact enterprises of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, as well as survey results from association member companies and information provided by certain sub-associations, the machine tool industry... 2021 Year 1-9 The following is a summary analysis of the moon's operational status.

2021 Year 1-9 In the month, statistical data from key contacted enterprises indicate that the industry as a whole continues to maintain steady growth, with sustained improvements in profitability. Affected by the base effect from the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rates of major economic indicators generally showed a decline. 1-6 The monthly figure has slightly declined, showing a pattern of higher in the beginning and lower toward the end, yet it remains at a relatively high level.

1. Operating revenue generally saw a significant increase.

2021 Year 1-9 Month: Key contacted enterprises saw year-on-year growth in operating revenue. 34.3% , the increase compared to 1-6 Moon falls back 11.4 percentage points. Operating revenues in all sub-sectors saw substantial year-on-year growth. Among them, metal cutting machine tools increased by year-on-year. 39.2% Metal forming machine tools saw year-on-year growth. 21.3% Tool and measuring instrument sales increased year-on-year. 19.5% Abrasive tools and abrasives saw year-on-year growth. 36.7% The component with the largest increase in rolling functionality is: 83.8% 。

In the third quarter, the operating revenue of key enterprises under close monitoring decreased compared to the second quarter. 16.3% This is related to the frequent outbreaks of domestic epidemics and natural disasters in the third quarter, tight electricity supply, and the lagged effects of rising raw material prices.

Figure 1 Yes 2021 Year 1-9 Moon and 2020 Year, 2019 A comparison of the year-on-year growth rates of cumulative operating revenue for key enterprises under focused contact.

Figure 1: Year-on-Year Growth Rate of Operating Revenue for Key Contact Enterprises

2. All sub-sectors have achieved full profitability.

2021 Year 1-9 In the month, key contacted enterprises saw a significant year-on-year increase in total profits, and all sub-sectors achieved profitability. The machine tool industry, which has long been plagued by losses or meager profits, has shown signs of improvement.

3. The scope of losses has generally narrowed, and corporate operating conditions have improved.

As of 2021 Year 9 In the month, the proportion of loss-making enterprises among key contact enterprises was 24.1% narrowed compared to the same month of the previous year 8.5 percentage points, and with 2019 Compared with the same period last year, it has narrowed significantly. 13.8 percentage points. Among them, metal cutting machine tools narrowed. 10.8 Percentage points, metal forming machine tool sales narrowed. 4.7 Percentage point, tool and measuring instrument narrowing 11.5 Percentage points, abrasive tools and abrasives narrowed. 12.2 percentage point.

4. The order growth rate compared to the same period last year is relatively high.

2021 Year 1-9 In the month, newly placed orders for metalworking machine tools at key contacted enterprises increased year-on-year. 32.2% ; As of 9 At the end of the month, orders on hand increased year-on-year. 20.4% Among them, new orders for metal cutting machine tools increased year-on-year. 31.3% Orders on hand increased year-on-year. 10.6% New orders for metal forming machine tools increased year-on-year. 34.3% Orders on hand increased year-on-year. 48.4% Metal forming machine tools saw a remarkable year-on-year growth in backlog orders, laying a solid foundation for stable operations in the next phase.

5. Machine tool production has increased significantly, and finished goods inventory has both decreased and increased.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, 2021 Year 1-9 Month, metal cutting machine tool production 50.1 Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth 38.4% ; Metal forming machine tool production 15.7 Ten thousand units, year-on-year growth 6.8% 。

Figure 2 , figure 3 are respectively 2021 Year 1-9 Moon and 2020 Year, 2019 A comparison of the year-on-year growth rates of metal cutting machine tool production and metal forming machine tool production.

Figure 2: Year-on-year growth rate of metal cutting machine tool production

Figure 3: Year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production  

Statistical data from the association’s key contact enterprises show that, 2021 Year 1-9 In the month, the output of metal cutting machine tools increased year-on-year. 29.1% , output value increased year-on-year. 38.6% ; Metal forming machine tool production increased year-on-year. 20.9% , output value increased year-on-year. 26.9% The growth rates of the above-mentioned output values were significantly higher than the corresponding growth rates of output volume, indicating that the value of each machine tool has increased.

The enterprises that the association focuses on and the machine tool production figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics both showed year-on-year growth in the third quarter. Among them, the output of metal cutting machine tools increased even more significantly.

2021 Year 1-9 Month: Inventory at key contacted enterprises increased year-on-year. 10.6% Among them, raw materials increased year-on-year. 17.5% Finished products increased slightly year-on-year. 0.2% Inventory of finished metalworking machine tools increased year-on-year. 2.6% Among them, metal cutting machine tools saw year-on-year growth. 3.3% Metal forming machine tools declined year-on-year. 1.2% 。

II. Import and Export Situation

According to Chinese customs data, 2021 Year 1-9 The overall import and export of machine tools continued the strong momentum from the first half of the year, maintaining rapid growth. The total value of imports and exports... 242.6 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 32.8% , the increase rate is higher than 1-6 Monthly increase 3.6 percentage point.

2021 Year 1-9 The import and export of machine tools maintained its momentum since... 2019 Year 6 The trade surplus trend since last month. Imports of machine tool products 105.2 hundreds of millions of dollars, exports 137.4 hundreds of millions of dollars, with a trade surplus of 32.2 hundreds of millions of dollars, the trade surplus compared to 1-6 Monthly expansion 13.2 hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars. The trade surpluses are seen in abrasives and grinding tools, woodworking machinery, cutting tools, metal-forming machinery, and casting machines, among others. 6 A product category.

On the import side, 2021 Year 1-9 The monthly trend shows a clear upward momentum. Imports increased year-on-year. 23.7% , the increase rate is higher than 1-6 Monthly increase 4.7 percentage points. Among them, the import value of metalworking machine tools... 56.6 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 27.5% Metal cutting machine tool import value 47.3 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 29.1% ; Imports of metal forming machine tools 9.3 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 20.3% Import value of cutting tools 12.6 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 18.0% Imports of abrasives and abrasive tools 5.7 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 26.6%.  

The top five import categories for metalworking machine tools are: machining centers. 20.9 hundred million dollars, share 37.0% ; Special-purpose machine tools 9.5 hundred million dollars, share 16.8% ; Grinding machine 6.6 hundred million dollars, share 11.7% ; Lathe 4.4 hundred million dollars, share 7.8% Forging or stamping machine tools 2.3 hundred million dollars, share 4.1% 。

From the perspective of import sources, 2021 Year 1-9 The top three sources of monthly imports and 1-6 The months are exactly the same: Japan. 34.5 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 37.8% ; Germany 22.2 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 11.0% ; Taiwan, China 14.3 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 36.1% 。

The cumulative import figures for each product category are shown in the chart. 4。

Figure 4: Cumulative Imports of Machine Tool Products (in US$100 million)

In terms of exports, 2021 Year 1-9 The moon continues to maintain a strong growth trend. Export value increased year-on-year. 40.8% , the increase rate is higher than 1-6 Monthly increase 2.3 percentage points. Among them, the export value of metalworking machine tools... 37.9 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 35.3% ; Metal cutting machine tool export value 26.2 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 34.1% ; Metal forming machine tool export value 11.7 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 37.9% Cutting tool export value 27.6 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 36.2% Abrasive and abrasive tool export value 29.3 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 65.0% 。

The top five in metalworking machine tool exports are: special-purpose machine tools. 11.9 hundred million dollars, share 31.5% ; Lathe 3.7 hundred million dollars, share 9.7% ; Forming bending machine 2.9 hundred million dollars, share 7.7% ; Other forming machine tools 2.6 hundred million dollars, share 6.8% ; Machining center 2.1 hundred million dollars, share 5.6% 。

From the perspective of export destinations, 2021 Year 1-9 The top three months for exports and 1-6 The months are exactly the same: United States 17.5 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 27.4% ; Vietnam 10.5 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 35.4% ; India 8.8 hundreds of millions of dollars, up year-on-year 67.8% 。

The cumulative export performance for each product category is shown in the figure. 5。

Figure 5: Cumulative Export Performance of Machine Tool Products (in US$100 million)  

III. Characteristics of Industry Operations

1.  The overall industry continues to maintain stable recovery and growth.

Based on the statistical data above, the machine tool industry as a whole and its various sub-sectors... 2021 Year 1-9 Major monthly indicators all showed substantial year-on-year growth, the proportion of loss-making enterprises narrowed significantly, and profitability improved. Overall, the machine tool industry continues to maintain a relatively stable recovery and growth trend.

2. The import and export of machine tool products are showing a sustained growth trend.

2021 Year 1-9 The import and export of machine tool products not only maintained substantial year-on-year growth, but the growth rate also exceeded... 1-6 The monthly figures have shown further improvement. The import and export of metalworking machine tools have completely reversed the negative growth trend of the previous two years. On the other hand, the growth rate of exports has significantly outpaced that of imports, leading to a continuously widening trade surplus.

3. The order situation for metal forming machine tools is encouraging.

2021 Year 1-9 In the month, the metal forming machine tool industry saw a significantly higher year-on-year growth rate in orders compared to the metal cutting machine tool industry, signaling that this sector is poised to accelerate its recovery and growth.

4.  There has been an increase in unfavorable factors affecting industry operations.

Since the beginning of this year, the pandemic has repeatedly surged on a large scale, natural disasters have occurred frequently, prices of industrial raw materials have risen, constraints on production factors have tightened, power restrictions and production halts have become more common, international logistics have been hampered, and export costs have climbed—all these adverse factors have dealt a significant blow to the machine tool industry. Some of these factors have emerged only after the third quarter. Meanwhile, under the impact of both domestic and overseas pandemics, the industrial structure remains unreasonable, and certain weak links in the industrial and supply chains have become increasingly apparent.

Under the country’s macroeconomic regulation, the recent issues of power cuts and sharp price increases in industrial raw materials have eased somewhat. However, the subsequent impact on the operation of the machine tool industry and market demand still cannot be overlooked.

Considering all relevant factors, in the first three quarters, market demand in the machine tool industry remained robust, and the industry’s operations showed a steady recovery, maintaining stability while moving toward improvement, with a clear upward growth trend, thus laying a solid foundation for achieving stable growth throughout the year. However, since entering the third quarter, both domestic and international risks and challenges have increased: the global pandemic continues to spread, the pace of global economic recovery has slowed somewhat, international commodity prices remain at high levels, and certain regions within China have been hit by multiple shocks—including outbreaks of COVID-19 and severe flooding. China’s manufacturing sector... PMI Already existing 7 months of decline, in a row 18 After the month has been above the critical point,  9 Monthly manufacturing PMI For 49.6% ，10 Monthly manufacturing PMI For 49.2% , remaining in the contraction range for two consecutive months. So far this year... 9 The growth rate of fixed-asset investment over the past month was 7.3% , of which fixed-asset investment in the secondary industry was 12.2% , the fixed-asset investment in equipment and tools is -3.8% Fixed-asset investment in the automotive manufacturing industry is -6.5% These figures all represent the lowest levels so far this year. Meanwhile, in recent months, some user sectors within the machine tool industry have experienced fluctuations in their operations. The above-mentioned factors will also have a negative impact on the industry’s recovery and growth in the next phase.

Taking into account various factors and the currently favorable order situation in the machine tool industry, the growth of key indicators such as annual operating revenue in the machine tool industry will significantly exceed the initial forecast for the year. 5% The expectation.